Qwen — Field Evidence
paperUnverified
Qwen · Qwen · praise
Field note
From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation — LLMs can perform language-based quantitative prediction from unstructured inputs, but remain susceptible to hallucinations and overconfident errors, making it critical to know n
collected 2026-07-15original 2026-07-14
Does this shift the US–China race?
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Impact on the index
Model launch · minor
China +25
Directional contribution — before recency decay and per-type diminishing returns. How it works →
Related Front
US vs ChinaLikely
U.S. FrontiervsChina Open-Weight
Likely — capability gap narrowing on common tasks
Letters from the Front
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