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GPT — Field Evidence

paperUnverified
GPT · GPT · praise
Field note
LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sports — Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult. In particular, existing benchmarks a
collected 2026-07-28original 2026-07-27

Does this shift the US–China race?

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Impact on the index
Benchmark win · minor
US +30China -7
Directional contribution — before recency decay and per-type diminishing returns. How it works →
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Related Front

US vs ChinaLikely
U.S. FrontiervsChina Open-Weight

Likely — capability gap narrowing on common tasks

Letters from the Front

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